Breaking News: Gold Whipsaws in Roller-Coaster Trading — Loses the USD 4,600 Level After Hitting Record Highs as Risks Build Beneath the Euphoria

Market attention has once again converged on the gold market. International gold prices staged a dramatic V-shaped reversal within a single day, surging to fresh historical peaks before rapidly pulling back and falling below a key psychological threshold. The intense volatility has sparked widespread debate across global markets.

Key Developments in the Latest Gold Price Turmoil

• Record-breaking peak:
  On January 14, international spot gold climbed sharply, reaching above USD 4,642 per ounce, repeatedly setting new all-time highs and briefly becoming the star asset across global financial markets.

• Sharp sell-off:
  Shortly after setting records, the rally abruptly lost momentum. During early Asian trading on January 15, gold weakened and fell through both the USD 4,620 and USD 4,600 levels, bottoming near the USD 4,590 range. From the peak, prices retreated by more than USD 40, marking a rapid shift from “heaven to reality.”

• Latest market action:
  As of early trading today, gold is oscillating around the USD 4,600 level, with bulls and bears locked in a heated tug-of-war. Investors are broadly adopting a wait-and-see approach, and market sentiment has turned increasingly cautious.

The sharp rise and fall in gold prices over a short period sends a clear signal: behind the current gold-market frenzy, underlying risks are accumulating at an accelerating pace.

In-Depth Analysis: The Bull–Bear Power Struggle Behind Gold’s “Spike-and-Retreat”

The dramatic price action reflects an intense clash between bullish and bearish forces, with multiple drivers competing to shape the market’s direction.

Three Bullish “Engines” Remain Intact

Geopolitical risk premium

Escalating tensions in the Middle East and frequent risk events across the Americas have kept global risk aversion elevated. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold continues to benefit from strong defensive allocation demand, making geopolitics a core driver of price support.

Rising uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy

The U.S. Department of Justice’s criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has significantly shaken market confidence in both U.S. dollar credibility and the Fed’s policy independence, emerging as a key catalyst behind gold’s recent surge.

Global central bank buying provides a solid floor

Led by emerging-market central banks, global official institutions continue to expand gold reserves as part of ongoing de-dollarization strategies. This large-scale and sustained buying has built a strong structural foundation for gold prices.

Two Short-Term Risk Factors Trigger Profit-Taking

Technical overbought conditions drive corrections

Gold’s rapid ascent pushed market positioning into crowded territory. Technical indicators flashed clear overbought signals, prompting some investors to lock in profits, triggering cascading sell-offs and becoming the direct cause of the pullback.

Market sentiment turns cautious

Commodity strategy experts note that gold has shifted from a “fringe allocation asset” to a mainstream trading instrument. Such a transition inevitably leads to sharply higher volatility. Once sentiment reverses, gold may face deeper corrective pressure.

Outlook: Institutional Views Diverge Sharply — Rational Judgment Required Amid Volatility

In response to the latest bout of extreme price swings, major global financial institutions are clearly divided on gold’s outlook:

• Ultra-bullish camp:
  ANZ Bank remains firmly optimistic, expecting the uptrend to continue and forecasting that gold could challenge USD 5,000 per ounce in the first half of this year.

• Constructively bullish camp:
  Standard Chartered maintains an “overweight” rating on gold, setting a 12-month target of USD 4,800 per ounce.
  JPMorgan is even more aggressive, projecting gold prices could reach USD 5,055 per ounce by year-end.

• Risk-warning camp:
  Several institutions caution that market crowding in gold is at historically elevated levels. Any marginal shift in expectations around Federal Reserve policy could trigger sharp volatility, with the short-term volatility range potentially moving even higher.